Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3846
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3846 · XNA → ORD
departs 7:57 PM CT · arrives 9:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
XNA usually runs smoothly
↓
0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.19 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.