Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3846
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3846 · XNA → ORD
departs 7:57 PM CT · arrives 9:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at XNA that day
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.