Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3891
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3891 · DFW → RAP
departs 10:40 AM CT · arrives 12:11 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−21 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −21 pts in 24h
−21 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at RAP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RAP?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
10am departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
RAP usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.10 in
RAP (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.