Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3891
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3891 · DFW → RAP
departs 10:40 AM CT · arrives 12:11 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at RAP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to RAP?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Gusts to 37 kt forecast at RAP that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
RAP usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.61 in
RAP (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.