Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3896
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3896 · ORD → MSY
departs 9:20 PM CT · arrives 11:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 29%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.