Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3896
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3896 · ORD → MSY
departs 9:20 PM CT · arrives 11:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 29%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.