Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3928
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3928 · DFW → MHK
departs 10:38 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.1d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MHK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MHK?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Arrivals into MHK at that hour are often late
↓
MHK usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.43 in
MHK (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.