Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3928
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3928 · DFW → MHK
departs 10:38 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MHK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MHK?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MHK
↓
MHK usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.77 in
MHK (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.