Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3954
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3954 · STL → MIA
departs 11:00 AM CT · arrives 2:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.