Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3958
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3958 · DFW → MGM
departs 10:04 AM CT · arrives 12:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MGM more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
12%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MGM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MGM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
How late will it get to MGM?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
12%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from DFW are often late
↓
MGM usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.50 in
MGM (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.