Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3958
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3958 · DFW → MGM
departs 10:04 AM CT · arrives 12:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MGM more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MGM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MGM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MGM?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at MGM that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
10am departures from DFW are often late
↓
MGM usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
MGM (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.75 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.