Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3969
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 3969 · DFW → AEX
departs 3:55 PM CT · arrives 5:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 48%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at AEX more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at AEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to AEX?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
AEX usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
AEX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.