Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3969
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3969 · DFW → AEX
departs 3:55 PM CT · arrives 5:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at AEX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at AEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to AEX?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at AEX that day
↓
AEX usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
AEX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.53 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.