Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3969
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3969 · DFW → AEX
departs 3:55 PM CT · arrives 5:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 31%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at AEX more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at AEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to AEX?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
AEX usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.11 in
AEX (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.