Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3975
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 3975 · DCA → SYR
departs 10:59 PM ET · arrives 12:20 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
20%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 64% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SYR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to SYR?
On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DCA that day
↑
10pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↓
SYR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
SYR (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.