Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3996
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3996 · EYW → ORD
departs 4:21 PM ET · arrives 7:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 33%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 45 kt, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EYW (origin)
Gusts 45 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.27 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.