Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3996
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 3996 · ORD → EYW
departs 11:29 AM CT · arrives 3:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 9%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
24%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
24%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 45 kt, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day
↑
11am departures from ORD are often late
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
EYW is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
EYW (destination)
Gusts 45 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.