Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3996
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3996 · ORD → EYW
departs 11:21 AM CT · arrives 3:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
EYW is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EYW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.