Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3997 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 3997 · HSV → DCA

departs 9:56 AM CT · arrives 12:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ HSV is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HSV

Weather at each end

HSV (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3997 · HSV → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?