Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4010
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 4010 · DFW → MHK
departs 9:46 AM CT · arrives 11:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 6%
Thu 10/8 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MHK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MHK?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↓
MHK usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into MHK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.43 in
MHK (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.