Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4010
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 4010 · DFW → MHK
departs 9:46 AM CT · arrives 11:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 6%
Thu 10/8 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
14%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MHK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
How late will it get to MHK?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
14%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↓
MHK usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MHK
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.77 in
MHK (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.