Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 4015 · DFW → EVV
departs 9:29 PM CT · arrives 11:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at EVV more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±6 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EVV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at EVV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to EVV?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at EVV that day
↓
EVV usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.56 in
EVV (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.