Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4112
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 4112 · HPN → ORD
departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 7:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 13%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 28%
Wed 10/7 25%
Thu 10/8 23%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at HPN that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
HPN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.