Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4112
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4112 · HPN → ORD
departs 5:34 PM ET · arrives 7:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 24%
Thu 10/8 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from HPN are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
HPN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.