Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4128
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 4128 · SHV → DFW
departs 8:16 PM CT · arrives 9:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
27%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave SHV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
27%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
SHV usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SHV (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.