Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4149
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 4149 · ORD → MHT
departs 7:59 PM CT · arrives 11:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MHT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MHT?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MHT
↓
0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↓
MHT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.14 in
MHT (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.