Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4152
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 4152 · DFW → SDF
departs 2:17 PM CT · arrives 5:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 51%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −19 pts in 24h
−19 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
2pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SDF that day
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
↓
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.