Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4152
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 4152 · SDF → DFW
departs 6:01 PM ET · arrives 7:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 52%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
24%
Cancelled
37%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −19 pts in 24h
−19 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +29 pts in 24h
+29 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
37%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.21 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.