Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4152
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4152 · SDF → DFW
departs 6:01 PM ET · arrives 7:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Sat 10/3 52%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at DFW that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.