Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4291 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 4291 · DFW → CID

departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 10:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CID?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ CID usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.83 in

CID (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling11,714 ft Visibility9.71429 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4291 · DFW → CID

Odds over time

How late will it get to CID?