Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4291
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 4291 · DFW → CID
departs 8:11 PM CT · arrives 10:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 19%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at CID more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CID?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CID
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.77 in
CID (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.