Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5092 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

OH 5092 · BTV → DCA

departs 12:01 PM ET · arrives 1:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BTV that day

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ BTV usually runs smoothly

↓ BTV is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

BTV (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.47 in

DCA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5092 · BTV → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?