Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5169 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

OH 5169 · PHL → DTW

departs 10:04 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 10pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip2.88 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5169 · PHL → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?