Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5169 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

OH 5169 · PHL → DTW

departs 10:04 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

DTW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5169 · PHL → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?