Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5407 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

OH 5407 · CLT → SGF

departs 4:15 PM ET · arrives 5:42 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SGF?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi forecast at SGF that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SGF (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5407 · CLT → SGF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SGF?