Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5454 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

OH 5454 · PHL → MSY

departs 7:44 PM ET · arrives 10:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.36 in

MSY (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5454 · PHL → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?