Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5469 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

OH 5469 · PNS → PHL

departs 11:23 AM CT · arrives 2:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PNS that day

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ PNS usually runs smoothly

↓ 11am departures from PNS are usually not late

Weather at each end

PNS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.53 in

PHL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5469 · PNS → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?