Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5526 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

OH 5526 · IAH → DCA

departs 10:48 AM CT · arrives 3:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.47 in

DCA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5526 · IAH → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?