Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5632 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

OH 5632 · PHL → ORF

departs 7:50 PM ET · arrives 9:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
28%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at ORF that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.36 in

ORF (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5632 · PHL → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?