Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5632 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5632 · PHL → ORF

departs 7:50 PM ET · arrives 9:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at ORF that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ORF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.23 in

ORF (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.87 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5632 · PHL → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?