OH 5632 · PHL → ORF

departs 4:45 PM ET · arrives 6:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at ORF that day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

ORF (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5632 · PHL → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?