Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3813
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
OO 3813 · AUS → MSP
departs 9:43 AM CT · arrives 12:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 15%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 9%
Fri 10/9 9%
Sat 10/10 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −24 pts in 24h
−24 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.38 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.