Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3864
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
OO 3864 · OMA → MSP
departs 6:00 AM CT · arrives 7:21 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 7%
Mon 10/5 5%
Tue 10/6 3%
Wed 10/7 4%
Thu 10/8 4%
Fri 10/9 4%
Sat 10/10 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
OMA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.