Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
OO 3865 · GRR → MSP
departs 4:10 PM ET · arrives 4:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 16%
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
GRR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.24 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.