Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
OO 3869 · DTW → ELM
departs 10:52 AM ET · arrives 12:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+23 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at ELM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELM?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at ELM that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at DTW that day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
ELM usually runs smoothly
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.89 in
ELM (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.