Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3869 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OO 3869 · DTW → ELM

departs 10:52 AM ET · arrives 12:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELM?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 0 ft forecast at ELM that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ ELM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ELM (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling0 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3869 · DTW → ELM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELM?