Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3869 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

OO 3869 · ELM → DTW

departs 12:55 PM ET · arrives 2:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.1 mi forecast at ELM that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at DTW that day

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ 12pm departures from ELM are usually not late

Weather at each end

ELM (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.1 mi Precip0.18 in

DTW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.93 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3869 · ELM → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?