Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 3869 · ELM → DTW
departs 12:55 PM ET · arrives 2:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ELM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
ELM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ELM (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.