Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4236
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
OO 4236 · MSP → HIB
departs 1:05 PM CT · arrives 2:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 14%
Mon 10/5 10%
Thu 10/8 7%
Fri 10/9 11%
Sat 10/10 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at HIB more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HIB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at HIB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HIB?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HIB (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.