Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
OO 4458 · MKE → MSP
departs 8:00 AM CT · arrives 9:26 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 14%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.